中金：谁当美联储主席都很难撼动资产负债表常态化扩张

Core Viewpoint - The current structure of the US dollar liquidity system and the constraints from large fiscal trends make it difficult for any new Federal Reserve chair to significantly alter the normalization of the balance sheet expansion [1] Group 1: Liquidity Conditions - The Federal Reserve began expanding its balance sheet at the end of December last year, leading to marginal improvements in liquidity [1] - However, narrow liquidity (reserves) remains well below the lower limit of the "ample level," indicating a tight liquidity state since the pandemic [1] - The indicators for dollar liquidity in terms of quantity and price show that the market is still under significant stress, which is a fundamental reason for the recent panic selling [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - Given the pressures from debt, elections, and financial market stability, the choice of the Federal Reserve chair may not have a substantial impact, suggesting that a trend of liquidity expansion is likely [1] - There is a continued possibility for a bull market in global assets, with a positive outlook for the US and Chinese stock markets, particularly the Chinese market which is significantly underweighted by global active funds [1] - Precious metals like gold and silver, as well as copper, are also expected to benefit from the improving trend in dollar liquidity [1]