SCS(SH:601555) 智通财经网·2026-02-04 01:33Group 1 - The insurance market demand remains strong, with a downward adjustment in the preset interest rate and a transformation of dividend insurance expected to continuously optimize liability costs, alleviating pressure from interest spread losses [1] - The ten-year government bond yield has recently fallen to around 1.82%, and the company anticipates that as the domestic economy recovers, long-term interest rates may rise, easing the pressure on new fixed-income investment returns for insurance companies [1] - The current public fund holdings in insurance stocks are still under-allocated, with the insurance sector's valuation for 2026 estimated at 0.65-0.86 times PEV and 1.14-2.31 times PB, which is at a historical low, maintaining an "overweight" rating for the industry [1] Group 2 - The company expects listed insurance firms to experience rapid year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025, with Q4 net profit potentially impacted by short-term investment fluctuations [1] - The projected year-on-year growth rates for net profit attributable to shareholders in 2025 are: China Life (+48.6%), New China Life (+43.6%), PICC (+15.8%), and China Pacific (+15.3%) for A-shares; and China Taiping (+220%), ZhongAn Online (+134.5%), PICC Property (+34.7%), Sunshine Insurance (+9.4%), and AIA (+6.2%) for H-shares [1] - The company anticipates slight pressure on Q4 net profit growth, primarily due to a temporary pullback in growth sectors, with high equity holdings since 2025 leading to direct impacts on current profits from stock price declines [1] Group 3 - The company expects the new business value (NBV) of listed insurance firms to grow rapidly, driven by an increase in new single premiums and an improvement in NBV margin [2] - The projected year-on-year growth rates for NBV in A-shares are: PICC Life (+65.4%), New China Life (+42.7%), Ping An (+36.5%), China Life (+35.6%), and China Pacific (+26.8%); for H-shares: Sunshine Insurance (+48.6%), China Taiping (+32.5%), and AIA (+16.3%) [2] - The demand for savings-type insurance products remains strong under the current "deposit migration" context, with expectations for continued growth in the liability side in 2026, primarily driven by the bancassurance channel [2] Group 4 - The company anticipates steady growth in premium income for property insurance, with a year-on-year increase of 3.9% in premium income reaching 16,157 billion yuan in the first eleven months of 2025 [2] - The company expects the market share of listed insurance firms in the property insurance sector to remain stable, with premium income continuing to grow steadily [2] - The company projects an improvement in the combined operating ratio (COR) for various firms, benefiting from ongoing business structure improvements and cost reduction efforts, with expected CORs of: PICC 97.0% (down 0.9 percentage points), Ping An 97.3%, and China Pacific 97.6% (down 1.0 percentage points) [2]