'Muskonomy' shakeup: SpaceX valuation approaches Tesla's after merger with xAI

Core Viewpoint - Elon Musk's merger of SpaceX with his AI venture xAI indicates a significant shift in his corporate strategy, reflecting challenges faced by Tesla and the potential for growth in SpaceX and xAI [1][2]. Tesla Overview - Tesla's market capitalization is approximately $1.58 trillion, which is 26% higher than SpaceX's private valuation of $1.25 trillion [2]. - Tesla's stock has declined by 6% in 2026, with a reported 16% year-over-year drop in vehicle deliveries and a 3% decline in total revenue for 2025, marking its first annual revenue decline [3][4]. - The company is facing increased competition in the electric vehicle market, particularly from manufacturers in China and Europe, and has been impacted by the removal of federal tax incentives for EV purchases in the U.S. [4]. Strategic Shifts - Musk is redirecting Tesla's focus towards Robotaxi services and Optimus humanoid robots, despite facing significant competition in these areas [5]. - Production of Tesla's Model S and X vehicles is being halted as the company reallocates resources to new priorities, with these models contributing less than 3% to annual deliveries in 2025 [5]. SpaceX Overview - SpaceX is a leading provider of orbital launch services, with contracts worth billions from NASA and the Department of Defense, and operates the Starlink satellite internet service with over 9,000 satellites and approximately 9 million customers [7]. - The merger values SpaceX at $1 trillion and xAI at $250 billion, with SpaceX reportedly pursuing an IPO this year [8]. Financial Performance - SpaceX generated about $15 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit last year, while Tesla reported nearly $95 billion in sales and adjusted earnings of about $5 billion for 2025, indicating a steep decline from the previous year [17]. - Tesla has committed to investing $2 billion in xAI, which is now considered a SpaceX investment following the merger [18]. Regulatory and Legal Challenges - xAI is under investigation in multiple jurisdictions for issues related to its Grok image generator, which has raised concerns about the creation of explicit deepfake images [13]. - The merger may introduce legal and regulatory risks that could affect SpaceX shareholders, as the intertwined nature of Musk's companies could impact their regulatory standing [12][14].