3 6 Ke·2026-02-04 01:48Core Viewpoint - The Chinese automotive market in January 2026 is characterized by a stark division, with traditional fuel vehicle manufacturers showing resilience while pure electric vehicle brands face significant challenges due to market fluctuations and policy changes [1][10]. Sales Performance - Total retail sales of passenger cars in January are expected to reach 1.8 million units, a month-on-month decline of 20.4% and a slight year-on-year increase [1]. - New energy vehicle (NEV) retail sales may reach around 800,000 units, with a penetration rate dropping to 44.4%, nearly 10 percentage points lower than the peak at the end of 2025 [1]. Traditional Automakers - Traditional automakers like Geely, SAIC, and GAC Toyota, which maintain a dual strategy of fuel and new energy vehicles, reported stable sales. For instance, SAIC's total sales reached 327,400 units in January, a year-on-year increase of 23.94% [2][3]. - Geely's total sales were 270,167 units, with fuel vehicle sales contributing significantly to its performance, achieving a year-on-year growth of 1.29% [4]. - GAC's sales reached 116,622 units, with GAC Toyota's sales growing by 9.82% [6]. New Energy Vehicle Brands - New energy vehicle brands are experiencing a downturn, with BYD's sales dropping by 30.11% year-on-year, and domestic sales plummeting by 53.22% [7]. - New entrants like Hongmeng Zhixing and Xiaomi saw significant growth, but others like Li Auto and Xpeng faced declines due to high previous bases and insufficient new product launches [9][17]. Export Market - Exports have become a crucial support for many leading automakers, with Chery exporting 119,600 units in January, accounting for nearly 60% of its sales [9]. - SAIC's exports reached 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 51.7%, while BYD and Geely also reported substantial export growth [9]. Market Dynamics - The market's division is attributed to a combination of policy shifts and the seasonal demand associated with the Chinese New Year, which has favored fuel vehicles [10][12]. - Fuel vehicles are perceived as a necessity for family gatherings during the holiday season, leading to increased sales of traditional models [12]. Strategic Insights - The current market scenario emphasizes the importance of maintaining a fuel vehicle base while pursuing new energy strategies. Companies that can balance both will likely fare better in market fluctuations [14][15]. - Future competition will hinge on the ability to innovate and meet mainstream market demands in the new energy sector, as evidenced by the performance of traditional automakers [15][17].