IC平台：美联储降息预期降温 美元指数刷新6日高位

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights a significant regional divergence in global manufacturing as of early 2026, with the UK manufacturing sector showing resilience and recovery, while the Eurozone remains in a contraction phase [1] - The UK manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 51.8 in January, up from 50.6 the previous month, indicating a sustained expansion for three consecutive months, driven by new order growth and improved export performance [3] - The recovery in the UK manufacturing sector is supported by the postponement of tax increases by the government, alleviating cost pressures and uncertainties for businesses, alongside the full resumption of operations at Jaguar Land Rover's UK factory [3] Group 2 - In contrast, the Eurozone manufacturing sector has been in contraction for three consecutive months, with a January PMI of 49.5, indicating a slight improvement from 48.8 in December but still below the expansion threshold [4] - The Eurozone faces challenges with rising input costs, which have increased at the fastest rate in three years due to higher energy prices, while manufacturers struggle with limited pricing power, leading to ongoing pressure on profit margins [4] - Structural issues such as slow technological innovation and high energy costs, combined with external pressures from global demand slowdown and trade tensions, hinder the Eurozone's ability to achieve a sustained recovery in manufacturing [4] Group 3 - The divergence in manufacturing performance between regions and adjustments in monetary policy expectations among major economies are influencing recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, with the US dollar index rebounding [5] - The strengthening of the US dollar is attributed to the market's expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain current interest rates, following a series of rate cuts and cautious signals from Fed Chair Powell regarding future policy adjustments [5] - The rebound of the dollar has led to downward pressure on both the euro and the pound, although the decline in their values is moderated by positive economic data from the Eurozone and the UK's manufacturing recovery, which supports the pound [5]