国海证券：电力需求总量增长仍具韧性 维持煤炭开采行业“推荐”评级

Core Viewpoint - Emerging industries have a strong driving effect on electricity consumption, with resilient overall electricity demand growth. Short-term, the intermittent nature of wind and solar power highlights the importance of coal power for peak regulation, indicating a rigid demand for coal. High-quality coal assets still hold investment value, and leading coal companies exhibit characteristics of high profitability, high cash flow, high barriers, high dividends, and high safety margins. The coal mining industry maintains a "recommended" rating, focusing on stable and elastic coal targets [1]. Group 1: First Industry - The first industry shows high growth but low proportion, with electricity consumption expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.46% to 149.4 billion kWh from 2019 to 2025, contributing 2% to overall electricity growth. The livestock sector is a key driver, with significant growth in machinery power consumption [1]. Group 2: Second Industry - The second industry remains the main electricity consumer, with consumption projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.19% to 6.64 trillion kWh from 2016 to 2025, maintaining a 64.01% share. The internal structure is optimizing, with high-tech and equipment manufacturing gradually replacing high-energy-consuming sectors as the core growth drivers, particularly in computer communication electronics, electrical machinery, and automotive manufacturing, all expected to exceed 10% CAGR from 2018 to 2025 [2]. Group 3: Third Industry - The third industry is experiencing significant growth, with electricity consumption projected to reach 1.99 trillion kWh by 2025, growing at a CAGR of 10.73% from 2016 to 2025, and contributing 30.89% to overall electricity growth. Key growth sectors include wholesale and retail, driven by the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, and information transmission, software, and IT services, driven by the rapid development of artificial intelligence [3]. Group 4: Urban and Rural Residential Electricity - Urban and rural residential electricity consumption is expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.81% to 1.59 trillion kWh from 2016 to 2025, with a 15.32% share. The growth is driven by the penetration of electrical appliances and increased demand due to extreme weather conditions, with a contribution rate peaking at 50.03% in 2022. Projections for 2026 indicate continued growth across all sectors, with overall electricity demand expected to grow by 5.1% [4].