3 6 Ke·2026-02-04 02:11Core Insights - The Japanese semiconductor manufacturing equipment market is projected to grow by 14% to 5.59 trillion yen in 2025, marking the first time sales exceed 5 trillion yen and reflecting a robust growth trend in the global semiconductor equipment industry [1] - The growth is driven by two main factors: the explosion of AI chip demand and the recovery of the storage supercycle [2] Group 1: Semiconductor Equipment Market Growth - Japan's semiconductor equipment market is the second largest globally, with a market share of approximately 30% [1] - The sales forecast for 2025 significantly surpasses the 2024 figure of 4.44 trillion yen, indicating strong momentum in the sector [1] - Major semiconductor equipment manufacturers like ASML, Lam Research, KLA, and DISCO have reported strong financial results, highlighting the industry's growth potential [1] Group 2: AI and Storage Demand - The demand for semiconductor equipment is primarily driven by advancements in AI chips and a resurgence in storage technology [2] - The performance enhancement of chips relies on two main technological paths: advancing process technology (e.g., 3nm, 2nm) and adopting complex packaging techniques [3] - The competition among industry giants like TSMC, Intel, and Samsung for advanced nodes is translating into a rigid demand for high-end semiconductor equipment [3] Group 3: Financial Performance of Key Players - ASML reported a net sales increase of 4.92% year-on-year for Q4 2025, with logic orders reaching 5.8 billion euros, reflecting seasonal demand fluctuations [4] - Lam Research achieved record revenue of $20.6 billion in 2025, a 27% increase year-on-year, driven by strong market demand [6] - KLA's revenue for Q2 FY2026 reached $3.3 billion, exceeding market expectations, supported by robust demand for inspection equipment [13] Group 4: Equipment Demand Dynamics - The demand for advanced semiconductor equipment is expected to continue growing, driven by AI technology and the ongoing evolution of storage technologies [18][19] - The structure of orders is shifting, with storage orders now accounting for 56% of ASML's new orders, surpassing logic orders for the first time [19] - The transition to advanced DRAM architectures and NAND stacking technologies is expected to further increase the demand for high-end equipment [21][22] Group 5: Capital Expenditure Trends - Major semiconductor manufacturers are significantly increasing their capital expenditures, with TSMC planning to invest $52-56 billion in 2026, a 28-37% increase year-on-year [26] - Micron and SK Hynix are also ramping up their capital expenditures, focusing on HBM and advanced DRAM production lines [27] - The overall capital expenditure growth for storage manufacturers is projected to be around 40% in 2026, indicating a strong demand for semiconductor equipment [27] Group 6: Future Outlook - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to maintain high growth rates, with ASML projecting revenues between €34 billion and €39 billion for FY 2026 [29] - The introduction of High-NA EUV technology is anticipated to drive significant growth in the coming years, particularly as the industry moves towards 2nm and below processes [32] - The ongoing AI-driven demand and technological advancements are expected to support a long-term growth cycle in the semiconductor equipment industry [33]