重仓PE遭“反噬”，普林斯顿捐赠基金下调“收益预期”，严重影响大学发展

Core Viewpoint - Princeton University has significantly lowered its long-term return expectations for its $36 billion endowment fund from 10.2% to 8% due to a crowded private equity market leading to declining long-term returns [1][2] Group 1: Financial Impact - The adjustment in return expectations is projected to reduce the endowment's asset size by approximately $11 billion over the next decade, exceeding the total raised from the university's last two major fundraising campaigns [1] - Princeton has initiated a spending cut plan of 5% to 7% across the university in response to the anticipated decline in endowment returns [1] Group 2: Market Environment - The influx of institutional investors into the private equity market without adequate risk assessment has created a competitive environment, leading to reduced returns [2] - High interest rates are suppressing IPO and merger activities, slowing down exit opportunities, while excessive capital supply is intensifying competition for deals [2] Group 3: Performance Trends - The endowment fund experienced a record high return of 47% in 2021, but has since faced one of its worst performance periods, reporting negative returns for two consecutive years [3] - The rolling 20-year return rate for the endowment has declined from over 14% in 2005 to below 10% by 2025, raising concerns about future performance [3] Group 4: Lessons and Strategies - The case of Princeton serves as a cautionary tale for other university endowments regarding the risks of over-reliance on private equity investments [3][4] - The previously successful "Yale model," which emphasized heavy investment in illiquid assets for high premiums, is now under unprecedented pressure [4]