瑞穗警告：美联储若大幅缩表，将被迫更频繁“救火”干预

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh's calls for significant reductions in the Federal Reserve's balance sheet, highlighting potential market volatility and the need for increased intervention in monetary operations [1][2]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet peaked at approximately $8.9 trillion in June 2022, compared to $800 billion two decades ago, and has since been reduced to $6.6 trillion [2]. - Concerns about excessive withdrawal of reserves from the financial system have led the Federal Reserve to pause its "quantitative tightening" process in recent months [2]. Group 2: Market Operations and Intervention - If the Federal Reserve, under Warsh's leadership, resumes balance sheet reduction, it may need to adopt Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan's suggestion to shift the key short-term benchmark rate from the federal funds rate to the overnight repo rate backed by Treasury securities [2]. - This shift would require the Federal Reserve to engage more actively in daily interventions to mitigate potential market volatility [2]. - Increased reliance on the standing repo facility could lead to banks feeling more secure in holding Treasuries, thereby reducing financing risks [2].