Group 1 - The chemical sector is gaining market attention due to the logic of "cyclical bottoming and expectation reversal," alongside rising raw material costs driven by North American cold waves and geopolitical conflicts, leading to an increase in polyolefin futures prices [2] Group 2 - Recent trends show a significant divergence in the price movements of upstream propylene and ethylene monomers, with propylene prices remaining strong while ethylene prices are declining despite rising prices of upstream and downstream products [3] - The current operating rate for polyethylene (PE) is 85.35%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points from the previous week, as facilities like Shanghai Petrochemical and Dushanzi Petrochemical restart operations [3] - Ethylene prices are weakening due to increased spot supply from new domestic capacities and weak downstream demand, while the profitability of PE in the ethylene downstream chain is recovering significantly [3] - The current operating rate for polypropylene (PP) is 74.78%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week, as several facilities are temporarily shut down, impacting PP capacity utilization [3] Group 3 - Upstream inventory of polyolefins is decreasing rapidly, with total PP inventory dropping to 648,300 tons, a decrease of 31,900 tons week-on-week, and total PE inventory falling to 802,600 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons week-on-week [4] - The pace of PE inventory reduction has slowed, primarily due to the coal chemical sector shifting from inventory reduction to accumulation, alleviating previous low inventory pressures [4] - Overall, upstream inventory pressure for polyolefins is low, but there is relatively high inventory pressure in the intermediate circulation segment, especially for standard products [4] Group 4 - The downstream demand for polyolefins is entering a traditional off-season, with limited stocking willingness from terminal factories as the Spring Festival approaches, leading to weak speculative stocking sentiment [5] - The average operating rate for PP downstream industries has decreased to 52.08%, a decline of 0.79 percentage points, with only BOPP and CPP showing slight increases [5] - The average operating rate for PE downstream is 37.76%, a decrease of 1.77 percentage points, with most sectors experiencing a decline, particularly in the packaging film industry [5] Group 5 - The current market structure for polyolefins shows "low upstream inventory and high intermediate inventory," with significant divergence in supply trends between PP and PE [6] - PP is constrained by high propylene and propane prices, limiting the release of marginal capacities, while PE is seeing accelerated recovery in operating rates due to acceptable profitability in the supply chain [6] - Although supply is gradually increasing, it will exert pressure on the mid-term trend of polyolefins, but strong cost support is expected to maintain a bullish price trend in the short term [6]
聚烯烃 短期走势偏强
Qi Huo Ri Bao·2026-02-04 03:23