Citadel经济学家谈沃什：美联储可能未来一年都不再降息，美元熊市暂停

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in the foreseeable future, especially with the nomination of Waller as the next Fed Chair, amidst a resilient U.S. economy and rising inflation risks [1][3]. Economic Outlook - The combination of loose financial conditions, relaxed monetary policy, and upcoming large-scale fiscal stimulus (OBBA Act) may lead to a nominal GDP growth of 5-6% in the U.S. this year [1]. - The Dallas Fed tracks Q4 GDP growth at 2.49%, while the New York Fed's real-time forecast is at 2.74%, achieved even during a prolonged government shutdown [1]. Federal Reserve's Position - The Fed acknowledged stronger economic growth and shifted its risk balance from employment targets, describing economic activity as "robust" rather than "moderate" [3]. - The Fed Chair Powell indicated that the policy rate is no longer in a restrictive zone, with the current rate close to the estimated neutral rate of around 3.25% [3]. Dollar Dynamics - The dollar has depreciated approximately 11% over the past year, but with the Fed likely to remain cautious in the coming months, dollar shorts should be wary at current valuation levels [3][10]. - The weak dollar theme has been driven by various factors, including the U.S. Treasury's engagement with the Japanese Ministry of Finance, which has contributed to the dollar's decline [8]. Future Fed Leadership - Waller's nomination as the next Fed Chair is seen as a response to political dynamics, with him being viewed as a more establishment candidate and potentially facing less resistance during confirmation [6]. - Historically, Waller has been more hawkish than other candidates, prioritizing inflation control over employment considerations, and is expected to implement rate cuts only when absolutely necessary [6][7]. Market Implications - The current economic conditions and the Fed's emphasis on independence suggest that the future of the Fed may be less susceptible to political interference, which is viewed positively by investors who value central bank independence for global financial stability [10].