TradeMax：金价显著反弹，降息预期能否持续支撑？

Group 1: Core Insights - Recent international gold prices have rebounded significantly, driven by macroeconomic expectations, geopolitical risks, and technical factors, with gold rising over $650 after hitting a low of approximately $4,400 [1] - The outlook for U.S. interest rate cuts is a key factor supporting the current rise in gold prices, as the market anticipates further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, which suppresses the dollar's rebound momentum [1] - Geopolitical developments have reinforced gold's safe-haven appeal, particularly following the U.S. military's defensive action against an Iranian drone, which has heightened market risk aversion and led to a strong single-day increase in gold prices [1] Group 2: Policy and Economic Data - The temporary resolution of the U.S. government shutdown, with the signing of a spending bill by Trump, has reduced short-term policy uncertainty, although its impact on gold is limited [2] - Upcoming economic data, including the ADP private sector employment report and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, will be closely watched, as weaker data could strengthen rate cut expectations and provide upward momentum for gold [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Technically, gold has broken through the 50% retracement level since its historical high of $5,600, with bullish momentum testing the 50-period moving average on the H4 chart, indicating increased confidence among bulls if prices stabilize [4] - The MACD indicator is above the zero line, with the fast line on the signal line and the histogram expanding, suggesting accumulation of bullish momentum [4] - The RSI is at 55.83, indicating a neutral to slightly strong position, with no signs of being overbought [4]