DLSM外汇：美元指数弱势格局下的政策预期博弈

Group 1 - The US dollar index recorded a daily decline of 0.12%, closing at 97.42, continuing the overall weak trend observed since 2025, with a total annual drop of 9.4%, marking the largest decline since 2017 [1] - The weak performance of the dollar is closely related to the Federal Reserve's monetary policy adjustments, including interest rate cuts in 2025, which altered the dollar's interest rate advantage [3] - The relative strength of currencies among major economies reflects differences in economic fundamentals and varying market expectations regarding central bank policy rhythms, with the euro and pound appreciating by 13.5% and 7.6% respectively against the dollar in 2025 [3] Group 2 - The upcoming leadership changes at the Federal Reserve have become a focal point for the market, with discussions surrounding potential nominees and their policy inclinations [4] - Historical experience suggests that a smooth transition in central bank leadership helps maintain policy continuity, which is crucial for stabilizing market expectations [4] - The release of US employment data will provide new insights into the labor market, serving as an important reference for monetary policy decisions [4]