特朗普提名美联储主席人选沃什拟大幅缩表 称每缩1万亿等效50基点降息 瑞穗警示或适得其反：美联储资产负债表已从8.9万亿降至6.6万亿美元

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Federal Reserve Chair by Trump, plans to significantly reduce the Fed's large balance sheet, suggesting that a reduction of approximately $1 trillion equates to a 50 basis point rate cut, which could optimize liquidity structure and create more flexible policy space for future monetary adjustments [1] - Mizuho Securities issued a warning that this balance sheet reduction plan may backfire, as the current reserve levels are nearly at their limit, which is essential for the orderly functioning of the federal funds market [1] - Historically, the U.S. has maintained financial market stability through an ample reserves framework, with the Fed holding a large amount of U.S. Treasuries to ensure sufficient liquidity in the banking system; reducing the balance sheet could lead to reserve scarcity, potentially causing overdrafts in bank accounts and increased overnight borrowing demand, amplifying market volatility and weakening the Fed's control over short-term interest rate targets [1] Group 2 - Konstantin proposed that if the balance sheet reduction continues, the optimal path would be to reference the proposal by Dallas Fed President Logan from September last year, linking the overnight repurchase agreements backed by Treasuries to a core short-term benchmark, replacing the current federal funds rate [2] - This adjustment would require the Fed to take more proactive measures in daily monetary market operations to hedge against the volatility risks brought by the balance sheet reduction, while also encouraging eligible counterparties to increase the frequency of using the Standing Repo Facility (SRF) [2] - Despite banks generally having concerns about borrowing directly from the central bank, the normalization of SRF usage could become an effective tool for balance sheet reduction and encourage banks to hold more Treasuries, thereby reducing financing risks [2]