TMGM外汇平台：日本财政忧虑压过经济数据，日元承压走弱

Group 1 - The Japanese yen continues to weaken against the US dollar, reaching a near two-week low, with the USD/JPY exchange rate surpassing the critical level of 156.00, influenced by multiple factors leading to a short-term tug-of-war in the market [1] - The core reason for the yen's persistent decline is centered on fiscal and political issues, with concerns over Japan's fiscal health due to expansionary spending and tax cuts initiated by the Prime Minister, exacerbating public finance pressure [1] - Despite a recovery in Japan's service sector, with the Jibun Bank services PMI rising to 53.7 in early 2026, the positive economic data has not reversed the yen's downward trend, as fiscal concerns dominate market reactions [1] Group 2 - The weak performance of the US dollar is limiting the upside potential of the USD/JPY exchange rate, as market expectations for two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 have not attracted significant dollar buying [2] - Current market focus is on the upcoming ADP private sector employment report and ISM services PMI data, along with comments from Federal Reserve officials, which will further influence dollar demand and exchange rate movements [2] Group 3 - From a technical perspective, the short-term upward momentum of the USD/JPY has weakened, with the exchange rate breaking the 156.00 level, but the relative strength index is at 66.9, indicating it has not entered the overbought territory [4] - The MACD histogram shows a continuous contraction, indicating a slowdown in bullish momentum, with a key resistance level at 156.51 that needs to be breached to establish a short-term bullish outlook [4] - If the exchange rate fails to break through this resistance, a pullback may occur, with 157.62 identified as a significant resistance level for future upward movement [4]