杨德龙：马年有望延续慢牛长牛趋势，板块轮动或呈现“先小登、再中登、后老登”顺序

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-shares and Hong Kong stocks are expected to continue a slow bull market trend in the upcoming Year of the Horse, with a noticeable increase in market profitability and further sector rotation anticipated [1] - Different sectors are being referred to in a way that reflects structural differentiation: technology stocks are humorously called "small Deng stocks," while traditional sectors like liquor are referred to as "old Deng stocks." New energy, military industry, and non-ferrous metals (including precious metals) are seen as "medium Deng stocks" [1] - The expected order of sector rotation in a slow bull market is "first small Deng, then medium Deng, and finally old Deng" [1] Group 2 - In terms of industry allocation, it is essential to align with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and relevant policy directions, with a focus on technological innovation [1] - Key areas of focus in the technology sector include semiconductor chips, artificial intelligence, innovative pharmaceuticals, solid-state batteries, and computing power algorithms, as well as future technologies like controllable nuclear fusion and quantum technology [1] - The real estate sector is still in an adjustment period, but core areas in first-tier cities may see a rebound due to scarcity and demand support, with transaction volumes potentially increasing [1] Group 3 - In the precious metals sector, the price increase in the Year of the Horse is unlikely to replicate the gains of the past two years due to already high price levels, but the long-term trend remains unchanged [2] - Allocating about 20% of an investment portfolio to gold assets over a 5-10 year horizon is still considered an effective way to hedge against inflation and currency devaluation [2]