国内油价连续上涨，春节出行成本增加｜油市跌宕

Core Viewpoint - Domestic refined oil prices have begun their second round of increases in 2026, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan and 195 yuan per ton, respectively, effective from February 3 [2][3]. Price Adjustments - The recent price adjustment reflects a 4.69% change rate based on the average price of crude oil, with specific increases of 0.15 yuan per liter for 89-octane gasoline, 0.16 yuan for 92-octane, 0.17 yuan for 95-octane, and 0.17 yuan for 0 diesel [3]. - The cost of fuel for a small private car with a 50-liter tank will increase by approximately 8 yuan when filled, leading to an estimated total increase of 18 yuan for a monthly driving distance of 2,000 kilometers [4]. Geopolitical Influences - Recent geopolitical tensions, particularly between the U.S. and Iran, have contributed to rising oil prices, with U.S. crude prices fluctuating between 55 and 66 dollars per barrel, and Brent crude surpassing 70 dollars per barrel for the first time since September 2025 [5]. - Iran's significant oil reserves and production capacity, along with its strategic location in the Middle East, make it a critical player in global oil supply, with potential disruptions from military conflicts posing risks to oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz [5]. Future Price Expectations - Analysts predict that the next round of domestic refined oil price adjustments may see a decrease of around 20 yuan per ton, depending on the geopolitical situation and international oil price trends [2][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-Iran negotiations may lead to narrow fluctuations in international oil prices, with expectations of a weak overall trend for crude oil prices throughout the year [6][7].