第四季度预亏10亿！ “东北药茅”长春高新业绩“雪崩”

Core Viewpoint - Changchun High-tech has reported its worst performance in nearly two decades, with a projected net profit of 150 million to 220 million yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year decline of 91.48% to 94.19% [2] Financial Performance - The company experienced a significant decline in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, amounting to 1.165 billion yuan, a decrease of 58.23% year-on-year [2] - The fourth quarter is expected to incur a massive loss of 945 million to 1.015 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase in losses of 358.74% to 392.72% [2] Business Dependency - The core issue behind the performance decline is the company's heavy reliance on its growth hormone business, which has historically contributed nearly 100% of its net profit [2] - The net profits of Jinsai Pharmaceutical, a subsidiary responsible for the growth hormone business, were 4.217 billion yuan and 4.514 billion yuan in 2022 and 2023, respectively, closely aligning with the overall net profit of Changchun High-tech during the same periods [2] Market Changes - The long-acting growth hormone Jinsai was included in the national medical insurance directory, with a significant price reduction of approximately 75% for the 9mg specification [3] - The inclusion in the medical insurance directory has ended the high-profit era for this business, leading to a drastic compression of profit margins [3] - The market landscape for growth hormones has fundamentally changed, with competitors like Teva Biopharma and Novo Nordisk entering the market, further intensifying price competition [3] R&D and Sales Strategy - To reduce dependency on a single product, the company has increased R&D investment, reaching 2.69 billion yuan in 2024, accounting for 20.0% of revenue [4] - In the first three quarters of 2025, R&D investment was 1.733 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.96%, representing 17.68% of revenue [4] - Sales expenses have also risen significantly, reaching 3.764 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for 38.38% of revenue, up from 32.96% in 2024 [4] Transition Challenges - The company is currently facing a transitional phase characterized by the loss of its "old engine" (growth hormone business) and the underperformance of new products [4] - Short-term risks include uncertainties in innovative drug development and underwhelming commercialization of new products, which may prolong the period of performance stabilization [4] - However, in the long term, the short-term impact of price reductions from medical insurance is expected to be absorbed, with the growth hormone business potentially maintaining stable cash flow as prices stabilize and market penetration increases [4]