BlueberryMarkets：澳元兑美元涨至0.7094，受中澳因素推动

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) has continued its upward trend against the US dollar (USD), reaching a high of 0.7094, the highest since January 2023, driven by positive economic data from China and Australia, a resumption of the interest rate hike cycle by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), and a weakening USD index [1][2] - China's economic performance directly impacts the AUD, with improvements in service and manufacturing PMIs indicating a positive outlook for Australian commodity exports [2][3] - Australia's domestic economy showed strong performance, with the composite PMI rising from 51.0 to 55.7, marking the strongest expansion in 45 months, and the services PMI reaching its highest level since February 2022 [3] Group 2 - The RBA raised the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.85%, marking its first rate hike since November 2023, driven by higher-than-expected inflation data [4] - Inflation pressures in Australia are significant, with the December CPI rising by 1.0%, exceeding expectations, and the January TD-MI inflation indicator showing a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [4][5] - Market expectations for further rate hikes by the RBA have increased, with an 80% probability of a rate hike in May and potential additional hikes totaling around 40 basis points within the year [6] Group 3 - The USD index has been weak, trading around 97.40, influenced by a lack of key economic data from the US and cautious statements from Federal Reserve officials regarding interest rates [6] - Despite stronger-than-expected PPI data in the US, market expectations for an early rate cut by the Federal Reserve have not completely dissipated, maintaining a weak outlook for the USD [6] Group 4 - Technically, the AUD/USD is in an upward channel, with a strong bullish trend, although it may face short-term adjustment pressure due to being in the overbought zone [8] - Key resistance for the AUD/USD is at the 0.7100 level, with potential to test the upper channel at 0.7210, while support is concentrated around the 9-day EMA at 0.6964 [8]