豫园股份转型阵痛加剧，两年亏损超68亿元，监管火速关注

Core Viewpoint - The company, Yuyuan Group (豫园股份), is facing significant financial challenges, with projected losses of approximately 48 billion yuan for 2025, following a loss of 21.09 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a total loss exceeding 68 billion yuan over two years [1][11]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company expects a net profit loss of around 48 billion yuan and a net profit loss excluding non-recurring items of about 47 billion yuan for 2025 [1][11]. - In 2024, the company's net profit decreased by approximately 18.99 billion yuan, a decline of 93.81% year-on-year [4][14]. - The real estate sector's revenue has been under pressure, with a significant drop in income from 192.19 billion yuan in 2019 to 100.38 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.96% [3][13]. Group 2: Business Segments - The real estate segment's gross margin fell sharply from 29.31% in 2019 to 3.89% in 2024, reflecting a significant contraction in performance [3][13]. - The fashion jewelry segment, which is a core business for the company, generated revenue of 184.47 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, accounting for nearly 65% of total revenue, but saw a year-on-year decline of 31.86% [7][16]. - The overall consumption sector, including dining, food retail, and cosmetics, has also experienced revenue declines, attributed to macroeconomic pressures and structural changes in the industry [9][19]. Group 3: Market Conditions - The real estate industry is undergoing a deep adjustment and destocking cycle, contributing to short-term performance pressures for the company [3][14]. - Rising gold prices have negatively impacted the fashion jewelry industry, with consumers delaying purchases due to high prices and preferring standardized investment gold bars over branded jewelry [7][16]. - New tax regulations on gold, effective from November 2025, are expected to further suppress consumer demand by increasing procurement costs for jewelry companies [9][19]. Group 4: Strategic Response - The company is implementing a strategy focused on optimizing asset structure by accelerating the destocking of real estate projects, acknowledging short-term performance pressures [10][20]. - The management has indicated a long-term narrative centered around the value release of core consumer businesses and international expansion, although the effectiveness of this strategy remains to be seen [10][20].