Zhong Guo Qi Che Bao Wang·2026-02-04 09:23Core Insights - The recent policy adjustment regarding export tax rebates for battery products marks a significant shift in China's battery industry, transitioning from a phase of government support to one driven by market forces [2][3][4] Policy Changes - The Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration announced a phased reduction of the export VAT rebate for battery products, decreasing from 9% to 6% starting April 1, 2026, and eliminating it entirely by January 1, 2027 [2] - This follows a previous reduction from 13% to 9% in November 2024, indicating a tightening of policies as the industry matures [2][4] Industry Maturity - The adjustment reflects the industry's evolution, where leading companies like CATL and BYD have established significant market shares and technological advantages, reducing reliance on export rebates [3][4] - By 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries is projected to reach 769.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 40.4% [3] Competitive Landscape - The removal of export tax rebates is expected to eliminate low-price competition that has been detrimental to industry profitability, pushing companies towards rational competition [4][11] - The current market share of Chinese power batteries stands at 60%, with energy storage batteries at 80%, indicating a transition to a market-driven phase [4] Export Strategies - Companies are responding to the impending cost increases by accelerating production and securing orders before the policy changes take effect [6][7] - The adjustment is prompting a surge in exports as firms seek to mitigate profit pressures and explore new markets [5][8] Long-term Implications - The industry is expected to shift from price competition to value competition, emphasizing technological upgrades and product performance [10][11] - Companies are encouraged to optimize supply chains and explore global production capacities to maintain competitiveness [10][11]