大摩点评Lumentum财报：毛利率炸裂，更重要的是CPO实锤拿到大单了！

Core Viewpoint - Lumentum delivered an impressive Q2 performance, exceeding expectations across traditional metrics and providing concrete guidance on key technology paths for AI computing infrastructure, securing orders worth hundreds of millions of dollars [1][3]. Financial Performance - Lumentum's Q2 non-GAAP gross margin reached 42.5%, surpassing analyst expectations of 38.6% by 385 basis points, driven by product mix optimization and price increases for EML lasers [1][3]. - The company reported non-GAAP revenue of $665.5 million and earnings per share of $1.67, both exceeding Morgan Stanley's forecasts of $648.6 million and $1.38 respectively [3]. - Non-GAAP operating margin was 25.2%, significantly above the expected 20.6%, showcasing the company's ability to enhance revenue and margins in a strong demand environment [3]. Business Developments - Lumentum made substantial progress in the emerging CPO market, revealing a multi-hundred million dollar order for scale-out CPO expected to ship in the second half of 2027 [4]. - The OCS (Optical Subsystem) business backlog exceeded $400 million, with expectations to reach a quarterly revenue of $100 million two quarters earlier than previously anticipated [4]. Supply Chain and Pricing Power - Despite increasing production capacity by 20% in December, supply shortages persist, granting Lumentum significant pricing power [5][6]. - The demand for 1.6T optical modules is primarily directed towards EML lasers, indicating EML's continued dominance in the next-generation high-speed module competition [6]. Valuation and Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley raised Lumentum's target price from $350 to $420 while maintaining an "Equal-weight" rating, citing that the stock price already reflects optimistic earnings expectations for 2027 [2][10]. - The firm projects a remarkable 158% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in earnings from fiscal year 2025 to 2027, with a target price based on a 28x price-to-earnings ratio for an estimated $15 earnings per share in 2027 [7][10].