?欧元区CPI降至1.7% 核心通胀创近5年来最低! 欧洲央行“按兵不动”预期强化

Core Viewpoint - Eurozone inflation has dropped to 1.7%, below the European Central Bank's (ECB) target of 2%, leading to expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged at 2% for the fifth consecutive time [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation Data - The Eurozone Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by only 1.7% year-on-year in January, down from 1.9% in the previous month, marking the lowest level since September 2024 [1]. - The core inflation rate, excluding volatile food and energy prices, unexpectedly fell to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021 [1]. - Service sector inflation has also slowed to 3.2%, indicating a broader decline in price pressures across the Eurozone [1]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Market expectations suggest that both this year's and next year's CPI will remain below the ECB's target, positioning policymakers favorably, although concerns about prolonged low inflation persist [2]. - The Eurozone's economic growth in Q4 2025 was slightly above expectations at 0.3%, but ongoing uncertainties, such as potential tariffs from the U.S., pose risks to growth [3]. - In the Eurozone's 21 member states, inflation rates vary significantly, with Germany at approximately 2.1% and France unexpectedly at a five-year low of 0.4% [2]. Group 3: ECB Policy Expectations - The prevailing expectation among economists is that the ECB will maintain interest rates at 2% throughout 2026, with a small probability of rate cuts unless inflation remains persistently below target [4]. - Recent surveys indicate that nearly 75% of Eurozone economists believe rates will stay unchanged until the end of 2026 [4].