美俄最后核军控条约数小时后失效，无约束时代来临

Core Viewpoint - The expiration of the New START treaty between the US and Russia poses a significant risk of a new arms race, marking the first time in over half a century that the two largest nuclear powers will lack any limitations on their arsenals unless a last-minute agreement is reached [1]. Group 1: Treaty Expiration and Implications - The exact expiration time of the treaty is debated, but experts suggest it will lapse at 23:00 GMT on Wednesday, coinciding with the midnight signing time in Prague in 2010 [2]. - Pope Francis has urged both nations not to abandon the treaty's restrictions, emphasizing the need for a common ethical approach over fear and distrust [3]. - Without an agreement to extend the treaty's core terms, both countries could freely increase their nuclear warhead counts, potentially doubling their deployed nuclear arsenal [3]. Group 2: Cost and Strategic Considerations - The high costs associated with nuclear weapons may serve as a significant constraint against an arms race, despite the treaty's expiration [3]. - US officials have not yet responded to Russia's proposal to extend the treaty's limitations beyond its expiration [4]. - The global nuclear warhead inventory has decreased from over 70,000 in 1986 to approximately 12,000 by 2025, yet both the US and Russia continue to upgrade their nuclear arsenals [5]. Group 3: Perspectives on Arms Control - Supporters of arms control warn that the treaty's expiration could undermine mutual trust and verification capabilities regarding nuclear intentions [5]. - Critics argue that such agreements may obscure the benefits and hinder nuclear innovation, effectively limiting the strategic flexibility of nuclear powers [5]. - Former President Trump has questioned the necessity for the US and Russia to develop new nuclear weapons, suggesting that existing arsenals are sufficient for deterrence [6].