Core Viewpoint - The company has announced a significant increase in net profit for FY26H1, exceeding expectations, driven by the integration of pulp and paper production and improvements in pricing dynamics within the industry [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - For FY26H1, the company achieved a net profit of 2.15-2.25 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 216%-231%. After excluding 201 million yuan in perpetual bond interest, the attributable net profit is estimated at 1.95-2.05 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 315%-337% [1] - The company has revised its net profit forecasts for FY2026-2028 to 3.789 billion, 4.671 billion, and 5.702 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 8.8, 7.1, and 5.9 times [3] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The integration of pulp and paper production has shown significant effects, with the company owning 5.43 million tons of pulp capacity, including 2 million tons of chemical pulp, and plans to increase capacity to 7.43 million tons by FY27 [1] - The industry is experiencing improved supply-demand dynamics, with certain paper types seeing price recoveries. As of FY26H1, the company has a total capacity of 17.13 million tons for corrugated box paper, 2 million tons for gray bottom white paper, 3 million tons for white card paper, and 2.97 million tons for cultural paper [1] Group 3: Product Pricing and Market Trends - The price of corrugated box paper has been rising due to factors such as increased costs of recycled paper and seasonal demand, with average prices reaching 3,648 yuan per ton for box paper and 2,857 yuan per ton for corrugated paper in 2025H2, reflecting increases of 33 and 174 yuan per ton, respectively [2] - White card paper prices have also been on an upward trend, reaching 4,239 yuan per ton by the end of 2025, up 309 yuan per ton from August, with expectations for profitability improvement in this segment [2] - Cultural paper prices are under pressure, with an average price of 4,843 yuan per ton in 2025H2, down 489 yuan per ton, but the company is expected to maintain stable profitability in this segment due to its integrated production advantages [2]
玖龙纸业(02689.HK)FY26H1业绩预增点评：纸价触底回升 浆纸一体化效果显著 业绩表现超预期