Ge Long Hui·2026-02-04 14:47Group 1 - The company is expected to achieve a revenue of 350.8 billion yuan in Q4 2025, representing a 1% year-on-year growth, while Non-GAAP net profit is projected to be 400 million yuan, primarily impacted by declining retail profits and investments in new businesses [1] - The retail business is showing a stable foundation, but revenue growth is slowing down, with an expected revenue of 298.126 billion yuan in Q4 2025, a year-on-year decline of 2.91%. The performance varies by category, with significant declines in the electric category due to high base effects and depletion of national subsidies, particularly in home appliances [1] - New businesses are expected to reduce losses sequentially, with healthy growth in takeaway orders. The overall performance of new businesses in Q4 2025 is anticipated to exceed expectations, with improved user experience (UE) in the takeaway segment and a slight increase in losses for Jingxi and international businesses, which remain within controllable limits [1] Group 2 - Looking ahead to 2026, the impact of national subsidy policies is expected to weaken, leading to a tightening of the total amount of subsidies for consumer goods. The company's overall profit is anticipated to gradually recover due to the continued reduction in takeaway losses, with healthy growth in takeaway orders and further narrowing of losses [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) forecast for 2025-2027 has been adjusted downwards from 9.7/12.1/14.6 yuan to 8.3/9.1/11.2 yuan, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11.9/10.8/8.8 times for the respective years [2] - Despite the challenges faced by the retail business due to the decline in national subsidies, the company maintains a "buy" rating, considering the clear trend of reduced losses in the takeaway business [2]