美财政部维持债务发行策略不变，长端利率闻讯跳升！

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury's quarterly refinancing statement did not make significant adjustments to its debt issuance strategy, aligning with market expectations, despite prior speculation about measures to lower long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Debt Issuance Strategy - The Treasury plans to maintain the auction sizes for nominal, long-term, and floating-rate bonds unchanged for "at least the next few quarters," a forward-looking guidance that has been in place for two years [1] - The Treasury is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's expansion of short-term Treasury bill purchases and the growing demand from the private sector for these bills [1] - The Treasury reiterated its assessment of the potential to expand the auction sizes for nominal coupon bonds and floating-rate bonds, focusing on structural demand trends and the potential costs and risks of different issuance schemes [1] Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the statement, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield reached a daily high of 4.29%, indicating disappointment in the market over the lack of signals for reducing long-term debt supply [2] Group 3: Upcoming Refinancing Auctions - The Treasury announced a total refinancing auction amount of $125 billion for the upcoming week, including $58 billion in 3-year bonds, $42 billion in 10-year bonds, and $25 billion in 30-year bonds [4] - This refinancing is expected to raise approximately $34.8 billion in new funds from private investors [4] Group 4: Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) - The Treasury will maintain the current auction sizes for TIPS, having previously expanded TIPS auctions to stabilize their market share [5] - There was a divergence among traders regarding TIPS issuance policy, with some expecting no change while others speculated on an expansion in at least one of the three TIPS auctions this quarter [5] Group 5: Federal Reserve's Bond Purchases - The current scale of the Federal Reserve's short-term Treasury bill purchases reduces the risk of the Treasury overissuing short-term bills beyond investor capacity [6] - However, the Fed's purchasing plan post-April remains uncertain, especially with the upcoming appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed Chair, who has previously advocated for reducing the Fed's securities portfolio [6] - Analysts believe that due to the ongoing large federal budget deficit (nearly $2 trillion annually) and the upcoming maturity of a significant amount of medium-term bonds, the Treasury will ultimately need to expand the issuance of coupon bonds [6]