淡季不淡，一线城市二手房率先回暖

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in first-tier cities in China is showing signs of recovery, indicating a potential market repair after a prolonged adjustment period [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January, second-hand housing transaction volumes in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen collectively increased, with Beijing exceeding 15,000 units, Shanghai surpassing 22,000 units, Shenzhen reaching 6,802 units, and Guangzhou at 8,881 units [2]. - The transaction recovery in January is seen as an important signal of market repair, with the second-hand market entering a bottoming phase after four and a half years of adjustment [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As transaction volumes rise, the number of listings is decreasing, indicating an improvement in supply-demand dynamics. In January, Beijing's listings dropped significantly, while Shanghai's listings have decreased for nine consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of over 20% from peak levels [3]. - The market is experiencing a shift in seller mentality, with many homeowners opting to withdraw listings or convert to rental properties, particularly for well-located older homes [3]. Group 3: Policy Impact - Policy measures, such as the new real estate support policies in Beijing set to launch by the end of 2025, are stimulating previously suppressed demand by relaxing purchasing conditions and lowering down payment and loan costs [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Multiple institutions have reported improved expectations for transaction volumes in first-tier cities for 2026, with a bullish or stable outlook becoming mainstream [4]. - Despite the positive signs, the market is still in a "bottoming repair" phase, and it may take time to stabilize fully. The overall listing scale remains high, and there is still pressure to digest inventory [4].