Mondelez's Q4 Earnings Top Estimates Despite Cocoa Cost Headwinds

Core Insights - Mondelez International, Inc. (MDLZ) reported fourth-quarter 2025 results with revenues and adjusted earnings per share exceeding Zacks Consensus Estimates, driven by pricing and operational efficiencies [1][10] - Cocoa cost inflation was significant during the quarter, but management expects costs to moderate over time [1] Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share were 72 cents, a 4.6% increase on a constant-currency basis, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 70 cents [2] - Net revenues rose 9.3% year over year to $10.5 billion, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $10.3 billion, driven by organic growth, positive foreign-currency impacts, and contributions from the Evirth acquisition [3][10] - Organic net revenues grew 5.1% year over year, with pricing contributing 9.9 percentage points, while volume/mix declined by 4.8 percentage points [4] Regional Performance - Revenues from emerging markets increased 13.2% year over year to $4.1 billion, with organic growth of 8% [5] - Revenues from developed markets rose 6.9% year over year to $6.4 billion, with organic growth of 3.4% [5] - Region-wise, revenues increased 17.3% in Europe, 8.9% in Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, and 7.9% in Latin America, while North America saw a 0.6% decline [6] Margin and Profitability - Adjusted gross profit increased modestly, but adjusted gross margin declined 100 basis points to 30.5% due to elevated raw material costs and an adverse product mix [7] - Adjusted operating income surged 22.1%, with the adjusted operating income margin improving 190 basis points to 11.9% [8] Financial Health - MDLZ ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of $2.1 billion and total debt of $21.2 billion [9] - The company generated $4.5 billion in net cash from operating activities and delivered free cash flow of $3.2 billion for the full year 2025 [9] Shareholder Returns - Mondelez returned $4.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks during 2025, highlighting its commitment to disciplined capital allocation [11] Future Outlook - For 2026, Mondelez expects organic net revenue growth to range between flat and 2%, with adjusted earnings per share projected to grow between flat and 5% on a constant-currency basis [12][13] - Free cash flow is anticipated to be approximately $3 billion, with currency translation expected to boost net revenue growth by about 2% and lift adjusted EPS by roughly 6 cents [13]