Carvana Co. (CVNA): A Bull Case Theory

Core Thesis - Carvana Co. is positioned as a leading innovator in online auto retail, demonstrating strong growth and profitability in Q3 2025, with a bullish outlook for future performance [2][6]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Carvana sold 155,941 retail units, a 44% increase year over year, with revenue rising 55% to $5.65 billion, marking an annualized revenue run rate exceeding $20 billion for the first time [3]. - GAAP operating income reached a record $552 million, and net income increased to $263 million, resulting in a net margin of 4.7% [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA grew by $208 million to $637 million, with an 11.3% margin, reflecting strong conversion of adjusted EBITDA into operating income [3]. Unit Economics - Despite some pressure on unit economics, retail GPU declined by $77 and wholesale GPU fell by $168, primarily due to higher vehicle depreciation [4]. - Improved financing, ancillary attach rates, stronger loan performance, and lower funding costs helped offset these headwinds [4]. - Non-GAAP SG&A per retail unit decreased by $319, indicating enhanced efficiency despite increased advertising spend [4]. Competitive Advantage - Carvana's competitive moat is supported by its vertically integrated model, which includes reconditioning, logistics, wholesale, and financing [5]. - Initiatives like ADESA site expansion and same- or next-day delivery pilots have improved selection and speed, with 40% of Phoenix customers now receiving same-day delivery compared to 10% nationally [5]. Future Outlook - Management anticipates Q4 retail units to exceed 150,000 and adjusted EBITDA to be at or above the high end of the $2.0–$2.2 billion full-year range, aiming for a long-term target of 3 million units at a 13.5% EBITDA margin [6]. - The company's strong scale, robust cash flow conversion, and operational leverage present a compelling bullish case with significant upside potential [6].