GUOYUAN SECURITIES(SZ:000728) Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao·2026-02-04 22:28Core Viewpoint - The overall economic outlook for 2026 is optimistic, with service consumption expected to be the main driver of economic growth, particularly as companies begin to realize their performance in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2]. Economic Growth Dynamics - 2026 marks a critical transition from "weak reality" to "strong performance" in the economy, with service consumption becoming the primary growth driver [2]. - The GDP growth for 2025 is anticipated to meet expectations, but structural changes in consumption patterns are more significant than the numerical growth itself [2]. - There is a notable shift from physical consumption to service consumption, as evidenced by a significant increase in travel during the 2025 National Day holiday [2]. New Quality Productivity - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes accelerating high-level technological self-reliance and leading the development of new quality productivity, which includes not only technological innovation but also the upgrading of traditional industries [2]. - New quality productivity encompasses three dimensions: deep transformation of traditional industries through technologies like industrial internet and AI, the growth of strategic emerging industries, and forward-looking layouts for future industries [2]. Investment Themes - The A-share market is currently experiencing a dual investment theme of "low volatility dividends" and "technology growth," with many traditional industries being significantly undervalued [4]. - The technology growth sector is favored by market funds due to its alignment with industrial transformation and policy support, but there is a need for a balanced asset allocation approach rather than solely focusing on technology [4][5]. - Investors are encouraged to identify undervalued quality companies rather than simply following market trends [5].