21社论丨政策支持与资产价格走强，共同支撑楼市信心回暖

Core Viewpoint - The second-hand housing market in key cities in China is showing signs of recovery in 2026, with transaction volumes increasing during the traditional off-season and a continuous decline in listings, indicating a trend towards balance in supply and demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - In January, Shanghai recorded 22,834 second-hand housing transactions, a year-on-year increase of 24.18%, marking the highest volume for the same period in nearly five years [1]. - Beijing's second-hand residential transactions reached 15,000 units in January, maintaining above 15,000 for the second consecutive month since December [1]. - Shenzhen reported 6,802 second-hand housing transactions in January, a month-on-month increase of 2.9% and a year-on-year surge of 45.5%, the highest in nearly ten months [1]. - Nationwide, the second-hand housing market in 13 key cities saw transaction area growth of 16% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year in January [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in second-hand housing transactions is primarily driven by price adjustments leading to "price for volume" strategies, with many listings being older properties sold at lower prices [2]. - The proportion of second-hand homes priced below 3 million yuan in Shanghai has been rising, indicating a shift in buyer preferences towards more affordable options [2]. - The reduction in total listings suggests a decrease in selling pressure, as high-value properties are being absorbed by the market, leading to a new equilibrium in supply and demand [2]. Group 3: Policy and Economic Environment - The recovery in the second-hand housing market is supported by ongoing policy measures aimed at stabilizing the market, including extended tax rebates for home exchanges and structural interest rate cuts [2]. - The improvement in financial markets, including the stock market and global asset prices, has created a "wealth effect," enhancing the valuation expectations for real estate [3]. - The combination of a positive policy environment, ample liquidity, and inter-market asset price correlations is fostering a gradual recovery in market confidence and transaction activity [3].