21专访丨DWS全球CIO Vincenzo Vedda：黄金成投资组合必选 看好中国科技、消费股

Global Economic Outlook - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slightly raised the global economic growth forecast for 2026 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.3%, with the World Bank also adjusting its growth expectations upward [1] - Despite challenges such as escalating trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties, factors like expanded artificial intelligence (AI) investment, a loose financial environment, and supportive fiscal policies from major economies are acting as "shock absorbers" for the economy [1] Market Valuation and AI Investment - DWS's Chief Investment Officer, Vincenzo Vedda, believes that current high market valuations are not bubbles but are supported by solid corporate earnings and an AI-driven productivity revolution, distinguishing it from the "irrational exuberance" of the 1990s [1] - Vedda emphasizes the need for selective investment strategies in the AI sector, focusing on key "bottleneck" companies within the AI value chain that possess pricing power and are essential suppliers [2] Rational Prosperity Concept - Vedda describes the 2026 market environment as "rational prosperity," contrasting it with the "irrational exuberance" of the late 1990s, citing three key factors: accelerating global economic growth, ongoing fiscal stimulus, and a trend towards looser monetary policy [3] - The sustainability of this prosperity hinges on whether economic growth can meet expectations; if growth accelerates, the current prosperity can be deemed rational [4] Geopolitical Risks and Tariffs - Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding tariffs, which have had a limited impact on economic transmission, as global investors have adapted to the new tariff realities [5] - Geopolitical events will only significantly impact financial markets if they affect the fundamentals of the economy or corporate earnings; many geopolitical news items lack effective transmission mechanisms to influence these areas [6] Gold as a Portfolio Essential - Gold is viewed as an indispensable component of investment portfolios due to its low correlation with traditional assets and its effectiveness as a risk diversification tool [8] - Structural factors such as high global fiscal deficits and ongoing central bank purchases are expected to drive long-term demand for gold, making it a critical asset in the current macroeconomic environment [8] Focus on Chinese Market Opportunities - Vedda sees structural opportunities in China's technology, consumption, and healthcare sectors, particularly as the "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and expanding domestic demand [2][11] - The anticipated recovery in consumer confidence, driven by improved social security systems and stable household incomes, is expected to unlock suppressed consumer demand, reshaping market dynamics [11]