碳酸锂暴涨暴跌，企业称10—15万元／吨是利润舒适区

Core Viewpoint - The price of lithium carbonate has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 yuan/ton to below 150,000 yuan/ton since late January, raising market concerns about the underlying causes of these changes [2][3][4]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices have seen a continuous decline over the past seven trading days, with a peak of 182,200 yuan/ton on January 26, 2026, followed by a drop of 18% to below 150,000 yuan/ton by February 4 [3][4]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 yuan/ton to 147,200 yuan/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [3][4]. Market Influences - The recent decline in lithium carbonate prices is attributed to macroeconomic factors and policy influences, including the interlinked movements of precious and base metals, which have created a weak market atmosphere [4][5]. - Regulatory measures by the Guangxi Futures Exchange, such as increasing margin requirements and limiting positions, have effectively curbed speculative trading, contributing to the price drop [4][5]. Future Outlook - Despite short-term pressures, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest a continuation of inventory reduction and increased demand for energy storage, which may support price recovery [5][6]. - Analysts expect that after the Spring Festival, there will be a concentrated replenishment of inventory by downstream companies, potentially leading to a rebound in prices [5][6]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price of lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and labor costs. A gross profit margin of 5% to 10% is considered satisfactory for production companies [6]. - Companies with their own mines can achieve higher profits during price increases, while prices above 100,000 yuan/ton may not be economically viable for energy storage projects [6].