大宗商品价格指数创三年半新高！金银价格涨幅收窄

Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The China Commodity Price Index reached a three-and-a-half-year high in January 2026, standing at 125.3 points, with a month-on-month increase of 6.3% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 33 saw price increases in January, with lithium carbonate, refined tin, and refined nickel leading the gains at 48.4%, 20.2%, and 19.5% respectively [1] Group 2: Gold and Silver Prices - Gold and silver prices experienced a rebound, with London gold spot prices surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver prices breaking the $91 per ounce mark [2] - However, by the end of trading, the gains in gold and silver prices narrowed, with the Shanghai gold futures main contract turning from gains to losses [3] Group 3: Analyst Predictions for Gold Prices - A Reuters survey indicated that analysts have significantly raised their gold price forecasts for 2026, with a median expected average price of $4746.50 per ounce, marking the highest annual prediction since the survey began in 2012 [4] - This forecast represents a substantial increase from $4275 per ounce in October 2025 and a dramatic rise from $2700 per ounce in a similar survey a year prior [4] Group 4: Market Insights and Future Expectations - Analysts suggest that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce by the end of the year, driven by factors such as previous price declines, easing overseas liquidity risks, and ongoing strong fundamentals [5] - The market is currently experiencing cautious sentiment due to a temporary U.S. government shutdown affecting economic data releases, while geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasing demand for safe-haven assets [5] - Silver prices may face volatility, with potential supply and inventory tightness, but new demand from sectors like AI could provide support [6]