未上任已被施压！特朗普喊话沃什

Core Viewpoint - President Trump believes that the Federal Reserve should lower the U.S. benchmark interest rate and expresses confidence in his nominee for the next Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh, to understand this position [2]. Group 1: Nomination Process - Trump's nomination of Kevin Warsh to replace Jerome Powell faces obstacles due to a judicial investigation by the Department of Justice regarding Powell's testimony about the Fed's office renovation [3]. - Republican Senator Thom Tillis has stated he will block any Fed nominee's approval in light of the investigation, which could lead to a tie in the Senate Banking Committee's vote, stalling Warsh's nomination [3]. Group 2: Powell's Future - The obstruction of Warsh's nomination could disrupt Trump's plans for the Fed, and the ongoing investigation may lead Powell to consider remaining on the Fed Board after his term ends in 2028 [4]. - If Powell stays, Trump would be unable to fill the position with another pro-rate cut candidate, potentially limiting the new chair's influence on monetary policy [4]. Group 3: Market Expectations - Federal funds futures pricing indicates that the market expects the first rate cut from the Fed to occur in July, with only a 56% probability of the new Fed Chair's first appearance in June [5]. Group 4: Challenges Ahead - Warsh's nomination is marked by a lack of public engagement, which is unusual for Fed Chair nominees, leading to disappointment among market participants [6]. - There is a divided stance within the Fed regarding rate cuts, with only a few members supporting the move, while others, including Powell, remain cautious [7]. - Warsh's potential push for both rate cuts and balance sheet reduction may face significant challenges, as reducing the Fed's bond holdings could tighten financial conditions [8].