吨利润8000元与0元：电解铝与氧化铝的“冰火两重天”

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum industry is experiencing a significant divergence in pricing between electrolytic aluminum and its primary raw material, alumina, driven by differing supply constraints and demand outlooks [1][2][3] Group 1: Price Trends - Electrolytic aluminum prices have risen by 20% over the past year, while alumina prices have fallen by 25%, highlighting a stark contrast in market dynamics [1][2] - The theoretical profit for alumina has decreased by 111%, whereas electrolytic aluminum's theoretical profit has increased by 264% [1][2] - The price divergence is attributed to the rigid supply constraints on electrolytic aluminum, which is capped at a production capacity of 45 million tons, with a utilization rate of 97% [1][2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is bolstered by sectors such as AI, energy storage, and electric vehicles, creating a favorable outlook for its pricing [2][3] - In contrast, alumina faces oversupply, with a projected utilization rate of less than 80% by 2025, and new production capacity being added, particularly in Guangxi [2][4] - The influx of low-cost alumina from overseas, particularly from Indonesia and India, is exacerbating supply pressures, leading to record-high social inventories [2][4] Group 3: Pricing Mechanisms - The pricing of electrolytic aluminum is primarily influenced by demand fluctuations rather than raw material costs, marking a shift from a cost-driven pricing model to one governed by supply-demand dynamics [3][4] - Alumina, lacking pricing power, follows cost changes and is currently under pressure due to a significant drop in production costs, necessitating a search for new lower price equilibrium [4][5] - The contrasting profit dynamics between the two segments illustrate a market mechanism where profits are shifting from upstream alumina to downstream electrolytic aluminum [4][5] Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term resolution of the price divergence is unlikely unless there is significant production reduction in the alumina sector, which has not yet occurred on a large scale [5] - Long-term improvement in the pricing relationship will depend on the alumina industry's ability to optimize its supply-demand balance and return to healthier profit levels [5]