东北证券：2026年水泥盈利预期向好 分红率有望进一步提升

Core Viewpoint - The cement industry in China has reached a bottom in profitability, with expectations for recovery driven by stable cash flows and potential for increased shareholder dividends [1][2]. Industry Overview - The darkest period for China's cement industry has passed, with significant recovery in profitability [2]. - The domestic market is in a slow downward trend, with a projected cement production of 1.69 billion tons in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7%, reaching about 70% of peak production levels [2]. - The demand from the real estate sector is expected to continue declining, and infrastructure investment is projected to turn from growth to decline for the first time since 2014 [2]. Profitability - The industry has seen a notable rebound in overall profitability after a period of bottoming out [2]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the SW cement manufacturing industry achieved revenue of 252.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, with a significant narrowing of the decline [2]. - The net profit margin for the industry increased by 1.0 percentage point to 3.3% compared to the full year of 2024 [2]. - The operating cash flow for the industry reached 20.3 billion yuan, which is 2.5 times the net profit during the same period [2]. Supply-Side Outlook - The capacity utilization rate in the cement industry remains low, with an average clinker capacity utilization rate of 52% in 2025, an increase of 21 percentage points from 2020 [3]. - Policies aimed at controlling supply and promoting high-quality development have been introduced, including a directive to align actual and registered capacities and potentially reduce actual capacity by over 40 million tons [3]. Demand-Side Outlook - Infrastructure development is a key focus, particularly in the western regions, with significant investments planned, such as the 1.2 trillion yuan Yaxia Hydropower Station project starting in July 2025 [4]. - The real estate market is expected to see a decline in sales area, projected at 880 million square meters in 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 10%, returning to 50% of the 2021 peak [4]. - There is still considerable potential for transformation in the real estate sector, with approximately 700 million square meters of annual demand supporting the market [4].