“AI抢饭碗”冲击美股，纳指“跌跌不休”｜美股一线

Group 1 - The technology sector is experiencing significant pressure, with notable declines in software stocks, particularly highlighted by Nvidia's CEO comments on AI tools [1] - The S&P 500 index closed down 0.51% at 6882.72 points, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.51% to 22904.58 points, marking a two-day decline and breaching the 100-day moving average [1] - Despite a three-year bull market, over half of the S&P 500 companies that have released 2026 earnings forecasts exceeded analyst expectations, surpassing the historical average of 40% [1] Group 2 - Goldman Sachs strategists maintain a positive outlook for U.S. stocks, suggesting there is still significant upside potential driven by solid fundamentals and ongoing economic growth, despite a potential slowdown [2] - The ADP report indicated that only 22,000 private sector jobs were added in January, significantly below the expected 48,000, raising concerns about the labor market's low growth [2] - The new Federal Reserve chair, if supportive of balance sheet reduction, could negatively impact risk assets by withdrawing liquidity from the financial system [3] Group 3 - Historical data shows that the S&P 500 index typically experiences significant drawdowns following the appointment of a new Fed chair, with average maximum declines of 5%, 12%, and 16% in the first one, three, and six months respectively [3] - The market is likely to face challenges after May, as new Fed chairs often encounter scrutiny from the stock market within their initial months [3] - Past instances, such as Powell's tenure beginning in February 2018, demonstrate that new Fed leadership can coincide with market volatility and declines due to rising inflation expectations [3]