日本大选前夕市场情绪趋于谨慎，30年期国债拍卖面临需求考验

Group 1 - Traders are closely monitoring the demand for Japan's 30-year government bond auction, especially in light of the upcoming House of Representatives election [1] - The recent auction of Japan's 10-year bonds showed cautious bidding due to fiscal concerns, making the upcoming auction a test of long-term bond demand [1] - The volatility in the ultra-long bond sector remains high amid expectations of fiscal expansion and political developments, with attractive yields alone not sufficient to encourage decisive investor participation [1] Group 2 - The recent temporary reduction in food consumption tax proposed by Prime Minister Fumio Kishida led to a spike in Japan's bond yields, which have since retreated but remain near historical highs [1] - The weak yen has become a focal point in the market, with hedge funds re-establishing short positions on the yen ahead of the election [1] - The rise in German bond yields, reaching levels not seen since 2011, adds pressure on Japanese bond traders, reflecting concerns over government spending dynamics [2] Group 3 - The outcome of the upcoming election may influence the Bank of Japan's future interest rate decisions, as Kishida is known for supporting monetary easing [2] - There are indications that demand for ultra-long bonds may resurface once political uncertainties dissipate, with some institutions viewing them as attractive investment opportunities [2] - The timing of the 30-year bond auction before the election presents challenges for a strong auction outcome, but mid-term supply and demand conditions may improve [2]