光伏协会执行秘书长刘译阳: 光伏行业转向"价值重构"

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese photovoltaic industry is at a crossroads due to the cancellation of export VAT rebates starting April 1, 2026, which will lead to increased export costs and industry consolidation, shifting focus from price competition to value competition [1][5][6] Group 1: Industry Trends and Predictions - The cancellation of export VAT rebates is expected to accelerate industry consolidation and increase market concentration, pushing companies to prioritize technological innovation and brand value over mere scale [5][6] - In 2026, the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to see a shift in supply-side dynamics and a rapid acceleration in demand-side changes, with competition moving to a higher level [3][4] - There are differing opinions on global and domestic installation demand for 2026, with some predicting a slight decline or stabilization in global new installations, while others see strong growth potential in emerging markets like the Middle East and India [3][4] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Competition - The industry is transitioning from a "price war" to a "value war," focusing on product quality, technological advancement, and integrated solutions to address intermittency issues and enhance project returns [4][5] - The cancellation of export VAT rebates is expected to reduce the incentive for low-price sales, thereby supporting self-regulation and rational competition within the industry [5][6] - The emphasis on "cost per kilowatt-hour" and "lifecycle returns" will remain central to competition, with a focus on high-quality products and advanced technology [4][6] Group 3: Policy Impacts and Industry Upgrades - The introduction of zero-carbon factory guidelines is seen as a significant step towards the green transformation of the manufacturing sector, which will positively impact the photovoltaic industry by accelerating the adoption of distributed solar and green electricity applications [7][8] - The guidelines will drive the industry towards low-carbon manufacturing and optimize processes, leading to the exit of high-energy, low-efficiency capacities and raising industry standards [8] - The zero-carbon initiative is expected to enhance international competitiveness, positioning China's photovoltaic industry favorably in the global market [8] Group 4: Emerging Technologies and Future Applications - The concept of space photovoltaic technology is gaining attention, but it is still in the early stages of exploration and validation, with current mainstream options being gallium arsenide (GaAs) batteries due to their high efficiency and reliability [9][10] - Ground applications remain foundational, with future focus on complex and integrated systems, particularly in challenging environments like plateaus and deserts [10] - The integration of photovoltaic systems with storage and hydrogen energy is anticipated to become a standard configuration for addressing renewable energy volatility [10]