日本从深海采掘到稀土，这件事的意义有多大？丨国际观察

Core Viewpoint - Japan's deep-sea drilling ship "Chikyū" has successfully extracted mud containing rare earth elements from a depth of 6,000 meters near Minami-Torishima, with plans for commercial extraction by February 2027 if subsequent tests are successful [1][3]. Group 1: Extraction Potential - The rare earth reserves in the Minami-Torishima area are estimated to exceed 16 million tons, making it the third-largest globally, following China and Brazil [3]. - Successful large-scale extraction could significantly reduce Japan's reliance on China's rare earth supply chain [3]. Group 2: Challenges to Commercial Viability - Technological hurdles exist, as no precedent for deep-sea extraction and processing of rare earth mud has been established, requiring time for Japan to validate commercial-scale extraction [4]. - The high costs associated with extraction from over 1,800 kilometers away from Tokyo and at a depth of 6,000 meters pose significant financial challenges, making it difficult to sustain operations without a large market [5]. - Environmental concerns related to deep-sea mining may lead to international pressure, complicating Japan's efforts to disrupt China's dominance in the rare earth supply chain [7]. Group 3: Long-term Strategic Implications - Japan's recent success in deep-sea extraction aligns with broader Western efforts to reduce dependence on China for rare earth elements, particularly following trade tensions [8]. - Japan's reliance on Chinese rare earths has decreased from 90% in 2010 to approximately 70% currently, indicating a gradual shift in sourcing strategies [8]. - The G7 finance ministers' meeting highlighted the need for increased government investment in rare earth supply chains among Western nations, suggesting a coordinated effort to bolster domestic production [8][9].