选举不确定性下，日本30年期国债拍卖“稳住市场”

Core Viewpoint - The strong demand for Japan's 30-year government bonds in the recent auction alleviated short-term concerns about long-term debt, leading to a decline in yields ahead of the upcoming elections [1][3]. Group 1: Auction Results - The bid-to-cover ratio for the 30-year bonds reached 3.64, significantly higher than the previous auction's 3.14 and above the 12-month average of 3.35, indicating increased investor interest [4]. - The yield on the 30-year bonds fell by 5 basis points to 3.585%, while the 10-year bond yield decreased by 1.5 basis points to 2.23%, reflecting a positive market sentiment [1][4]. - Over 23% of the bonds were purchased by two large domestic companies, which is expected to support stable trading in the secondary market [4]. Group 2: Market Sentiment and Political Context - Despite concerns over rising fiscal spending, the auction results suggest that higher yield levels are attracting buyers, indicating a potential increase in demand as political uncertainties diminish [3][4]. - The upcoming House of Representatives election on February 8 will determine future fiscal spending, adding complexity to the current market environment [5]. Group 3: Currency and Monetary Policy Considerations - The depreciation of the yen has become a focal point, with hedge funds resuming short positions ahead of the elections, indicating concerns over currency volatility [6]. - Investors are closely monitoring how the election results may influence the Bank of Japan's interest rate path, as Prime Minister Kishi Sanae is known for advocating monetary easing [7].