上任后狂降息的理由找到了？沃什欲复刻格林斯潘剧本，赌AI改变游戏规则

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Walsh, nominated by President Trump for the Federal Reserve Chair, advocates for lower interest rates, citing the potential of artificial intelligence (AI) to significantly enhance productivity, allowing for rate cuts without exacerbating inflation [2][3]. Group 1: AI and Productivity - Walsh believes that the current AI boom is the most significant productivity wave in history, similar to the one experienced in the 1990s [2]. - Former Fed Chair Alan Greenspan's approach in the 1990s, which relied on anecdotal evidence and obscure data to argue against rate hikes, is seen as a model for Walsh [2][3]. - Current Fed officials, including Chair Jerome Powell and Governor Cook, express optimism about AI's potential to boost productivity [3]. Group 2: Economic Perspectives - Some economists caution that while AI may elevate expected output, its current contribution to productivity is minimal, with concerns that the AI boom is primarily driving demand rather than expanding supply [4]. - Anil Kashyap from the University of Chicago warns that if the current spending does not translate into productivity gains, it could lead to inflationary pressures [4]. Group 3: Challenges Ahead - Economists like Daron Acemoglu argue that it may take longer than Walsh suggests to determine whether AI will be a game-changer or not, emphasizing the need for real labor market adjustments [5]. - Walsh faces pressure to implement significant rate cuts soon after his potential confirmation, with current Fed forecasts indicating only one rate cut this year, keeping rates above Trump's desired level [5][6].