2026全球经济与市场能“稳”吗？丨两说

Group 1: Global Economic Outlook - The global economy is entering a new phase influenced by geopolitical factors, policy shifts, and technological advancements, with a focus on the potential changes in 2026 [1] - The actual tariff impact on the global economy in 2025 is expected to be lower than previously anticipated, with the effective tariff rate estimated at around 13% compared to the announced 25% [2][4] - Global trade is projected to exceed $35 trillion in 2025, reflecting a 7% year-on-year growth, indicating strong resilience in global trade despite tariff challenges [6] Group 2: Market Dynamics and Investment Sentiment - The "American exceptionalism" narrative is showing signs of decline, as competitor markets are performing better than the U.S. market by the end of 2025 [7] - The market sentiment is shifting, with investors demanding higher risk premiums, indicating that U.S. assets no longer hold the same "exceptional" status as before [7] - If risks do not materialize, a general rise in global stock markets is anticipated in 2026, with U.S. stocks potentially increasing by 10%, European stocks by 8%, and emerging markets by 7% [11] Group 3: AI Industry Insights - The focus in the AI sector is shifting towards the realization of practical applications, with only 17% of surveyed companies having scaled AI deployment effectively [13] - The current market confidence in the AI sector remains strong, with tech stock valuations being more rational compared to the late 1990s internet bubble [15] Group 4: China's Economic Prospects - There is an optimistic outlook for China's economy in 2026, driven by gradual improvements in the real estate sector and strong export competitiveness [16] - The new economy sectors are emerging as significant growth drivers for China, compensating for the decline in traditional industries [16]