【数据洞察·利润】原油涨势挤压 炼化利润全线承压

Core Insights - The recent surge in crude oil prices has led to a significant decline in refining profits across major domestic refining routes, with downstream product prices lagging behind, resulting in heightened cost pressures [1][5] Profit Analysis - As of January 30, 2026, the theoretical profit for the comprehensive refining route has expanded its losses to -490.96 yuan/ton, a decline of 108.56% compared to January 23, 2026 [2][3] - The theoretical profits for the refining-aromatic and refining-olefin routes are 136.47 yuan/ton and 58.69 yuan/ton respectively, but have decreased by 65.99% and 80.51% compared to the previous week [2][3] Price Dynamics - Over 86% of product prices increased on a month-over-month basis, with only EVA prices declining, indicating a general upward trend in product pricing despite the lag in cost transmission [2][5] - The price index changes for the refining-olefin route (1.89%) outpaced the comprehensive refining (1.43%) and refining-aromatic (1.24%) routes, highlighting a disparity between profit and price changes [3] Industry Outlook - The overall decline in refining profits reflects a common challenge faced by downstream industries during periods of rapid crude oil price increases, characterized by "input" cost shocks [5] - The recovery of refining profits will depend not only on crude oil price trends but also on the ability of downstream demand to effectively absorb and transmit cost pressures [5]