顾家家居(603816)：内贸零售转型+外贸全球一体化效果逐步显现

Group 1: Domestic Market Transformation - The domestic furniture industry is transitioning from an incremental market to a stock market, with operational growth potential through retail transformation and refined operations [1] - There is a significant increase in demand for functional and intelligent furniture, presenting structural growth opportunities [1] - The company is enhancing internal operational efficiency through lean production and cost improvement while increasing investment in product technology innovation to maintain stable gross margins [1] Group 2: Policy Impact on Consumption - The "old-for-new" national subsidy policy, effective from 2024, has significantly stimulated furniture consumption [2] - Since Q2 2025, the impact of the subsidy policy on terminal retail has gradually weakened, returning to normal levels [2] - The company plans to increase technological innovation in functionality and intelligence to meet diverse consumer demands for high-quality products [2] Group 3: International Trade and Market Expansion - The U.S. market is a key area for the company's overseas business, with changes in U.S. tariff policies presenting both opportunities and challenges [3] - The company is expanding production capacity in Vietnam and Mexico to mitigate the impact of tariffs and enhance production efficiency [3] - The company has a global presence in over 120 countries, with a focus on direct exports and self-owned brands in the EU market [3] Group 4: Retail and Global Strategy Progress - The company has achieved phase results in its retail transformation, with consistent growth in retail sales despite market pressures [4] - The global deepening strategy is progressing steadily, with increased localization of personnel and the establishment of integrated local value chains [4] - Foreign trade revenue has shown steady growth, maintaining double-digit growth from 2024 to H1 2025 [4] Group 5: Financial Projections - The company maintains its profit forecast, expecting net profits of 1.87 billion, 2.08 billion, and 2.33 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15X, 14X, and 12X respectively [5]