Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2026-02-05 08:27Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the domestic cloud computing market in China is expected to grow significantly by 20-30% to reach a scale of 450-500 billion RMB by 2026, with AI cloud contributing the largest incremental growth [1] - The AI cloud market is projected to double in size by 2026, reaching approximately 100 billion RMB [1] - Alibaba is anticipated to capture 80% of the incremental growth in the AI cloud market due to its comprehensive AI capabilities and existing customer base [1] Group 2 - Alibaba's cloud revenue for the calendar year 2026 is expected to exceed a year-on-year growth of 33%, reaching around 200 billion RMB [1] - The growth rate of external and overseas cloud revenue is expected to surpass that of internal and domestic cloud revenue [1] - The long-term profit margin for cloud business is projected to improve due to the increasing share of high-priced AI cloud services, particularly AIPaaS, and fragmented sales [1] Group 3 - For capital expenditure, Alibaba is estimated to invest between 160-180 billion RMB in 2026, with 70% of the budget allocated for the procurement of AI servers, including AI chips [1]