JINZHOU JIXIANG MOLYBDENUM(SH:603399) Hua Xia Shi Bao·2026-02-05 08:27Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price has experienced significant fluctuations, dropping from nearly 180,000 CNY/ton to below 150,000 CNY/ton, with market volatility attributed to futures market dynamics and regulatory measures [1][2]. Price Trends - Lithium carbonate prices peaked at 182,200 CNY/ton on January 26, 2026, before declining to below 150,000 CNY/ton by February 4, marking an 18% decrease [1]. - The main futures contract for lithium carbonate also fell from 189,400 CNY/ton to 147,200 CNY/ton during the same period, with multiple trading halts observed [1]. Market Influences - The recent price drop is largely influenced by macroeconomic factors and regulatory policies, with a notable correlation between precious and base metals affecting the lithium carbonate market [2]. - Regulatory measures from the Guangxi Futures Exchange aimed at curbing speculative trading have contributed to the decline in prices [2][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite short-term price pressures, the medium to long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing destocking trends and anticipated post-holiday replenishment in demand [3][4]. - Analysts suggest that the lithium carbonate market will continue to experience destocking through the first half of 2026, with potential price recovery following the Chinese New Year [3]. Production and Cost Considerations - The reasonable price for lithium carbonate is primarily determined by production costs, which include lithium ore prices, processing fees, and operational costs [4]. - For producers with their own mines, profit margins remain stable even amid price fluctuations, as long-term contracts often mitigate the impact of market volatility [4][5]. Industry Sentiment - There is a divergence of opinions among industry participants regarding the future price trajectory of lithium carbonate, with some expecting a rebound due to strong underlying demand [3][4]. - The current regulatory environment and high prices have led to increased production expectations from overseas mines, potentially dampening upward price momentum [3].