伊利股份(600887)：基本面表现稳健 关注春节动销表现

Company Dynamics - The company is currently in the pre-Spring Festival stocking period, with healthy channel inventory and stable pricing. The performance in January is expected to be robust, and attention should be paid to sales performance during the Spring Festival [1] Comments - The annual liquid milk revenue target is stabilizing, and market share is expected to improve, leading to an overall revenue enhancement. January revenue is anticipated to exceed targets, with smooth progress in Spring Festival stocking. The main growth drivers include: 1) Deep cooperation with customized channels and opportunities for market penetration, with major clients like snack discounts and Sam's Club reaching a customized scale of 100 billion yuan, which may deepen collaboration and promote market penetration; 2) Differentiated new products, such as the lemon-flavored yogurt and positive feedback from online trials of premium fresh products, are expected to contribute significantly to future sales. In the milk powder segment, the industry scale is expected to remain stable year-on-year, while the company's milk powder revenue is projected to grow in double digits, with significant market share improvement. The cheese and ice cream segments are expected to continue their performance in 2025, with the company gradually focusing on deep processing and functional nutrition, leading to incremental contributions in the future [2] Financial Outlook and Valuation - The expense ratio is expected to remain stable in 2026, with a long-term direction for profit margin improvement. Over the past two years, the company has actively reduced expenses in a weak industry environment, leading to a continuous decline in absolute expenses and improved efficiency. For 2026, the expense ratio is expected to remain stable, with planned investments for events like the World Cup and Winter Olympics to maintain exposure without altering the overall expense plan. Long-term, as the proportion of liquid milk revenue continues to decrease, the share of high-value-added categories such as milk powder, cheese, and functional nutrition is expected to increase, leading to potential long-term profit margin improvements. The upstream supply and demand situation is expected to improve, with an attractive dividend yield highlighting the company's deep investment value. In 2025, the number of dairy cows is expected to continue to decrease, and supply-demand conditions are anticipated to improve further in 2026, stabilizing milk prices and reducing impairment losses on reports, which will benefit the competitive landscape. The company plans to maintain a 75% dividend payout ratio over the next three years, corresponding to a current dividend yield of 5.1% [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The profit forecast for 2025 is maintained, while the profit for 2026 is adjusted down by 3.5% to 11.7 billion yuan due to high uncertainty in liquid milk demand. The profit for 2027 is introduced at 12.6 billion yuan. The current trading is at 15/14 times the P/E for 2026/2027, with a target price of 32 yuan, corresponding to 17/16 times the P/E for 2026/2027 and an upside potential of 18%, maintaining an outperform rating in the industry [4]